Economics Reports

Would we all be better off living in straw huts? Does adequate housing make us worse off That seems to be the implication from those who argue that investment in residential real estate has weakened Canada’s GDP per capita, a claim cited in a review of the literature in the April Issue of Statistics Canada’s Economic and Social Reports.

Governments at all levels are finally treating the housing affordability crisis with the urgency it deserves. The latest federal budget produced the most aggressive array of housing policies seen in generations.

It’s now become a steady countdown, and not one that’s going to be followed by a spectacular liftoff. Financial markets had at one point been pricing-in expectations for six quarter-point rate reductions from the US Fed in 2024, and even Jay Powell seemed to be hinting that the first one could come before midyear. Now even two cuts are seen as no certainty.

What started out as an advantage for the Canadian economy spiraled out of control as 2023 progressed. Population growth led by non-permanent residents initially helped to fill elevated job vacancies coming out of the pandemic, but the surge since mid-2022 has also resulted in housing shortages and rent price inflation.

The lead-up to today's federal budget saw no shortage of new program initiatives, but staying close enough to fiscal targets, and avoiding inflationary stimulus, required many of these items to be bought on an installment plan.

Does certainty apply to tax increases in the upcoming federal budget? Here’s our take and what we ought to see based on sound tax and fiscal policy.

What the Bank of Canada is likely to say about where the neutral rate is, and why one size doesn't fit all for Canada and the US.

It’s been a full year since unofficial rent measures, including those focused on year-on-year changes in asking rents for new tenants, turned the corner and began to decelerate. We joined others in arguing that it was only a matter of time before the two CPI rent measures followed suit. So, shouldn’t we already have seen more of that slowing?

Our latest In Focus report makes the point that the current situation in the US is very similar to the soft landing of 1995. The report assesses not only the extent that conditions in the first half of the 1990s were similar to today’s situation, but also looks at what might await us at the end of the runway.

When can we begin to expect some interest rate relief? CIBC's Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, shares his outlook for the Canadian and US economies.

This week’s speech by the Bank of Canada’s Carolyn Rogers drew useful attention to the symptoms of Canada’s productivity malaise. But we’re still left without much progress towards a diagnosis, the first step towards a cure, and that might explain why public policy efforts in this area have come up short.

Switzerland made the first move, but the stage is being set for others to follow. Markets were surprised by the Swiss National Bank’s choice to cut rates this week rather than wait until June, but really should have expected that, since inflation has been subdued for a full year.

The battle for the White House is now in high gear, and Americans are being asked that favourite question: are you better off than you were four years ago?

The increased sensitivity of households to higher interest rates is well documented. What was a theoretical risk or a stress test, became a reality. The impact on the consumer is clear and evident. But to what extent will the interest rate induced recessionary conditions in the household credit space morph from a macro story into a credit quality issue?

There are two camps among American economists on when the Fed should be cutting the US policy rate. There are those like Paul Krugman who argue that inflation is now low enough that the central bank ought to be easing now...

The Canadian economy is clearly sluggish, but core inflation remains stubbornly high. What gives?